In the American League, the team that wants it more has won.
No, teams such as the Rangers and Astros are not outworking or outhustling teams such as the Orioles and Twins.
But they are outmaneuvering and outspending them, a measurement of their front offices’ and ownerships’ effort levels.
The No. 1-seeded Orioles were swept in the ALDS primarily because of a season-long problem that was never properly addressed.
The Rangers did the sweeping primarily because they continually addressed a problem that kept popping up.
After a breath-of-fresh-air 2022, in which the Orioles finally finished with a winning record but had clear holes in their rotation, Baltimore aimed low last offseason.
GM Mike Elias signed Kyle Gibson for $10 million and traded for A’s starter Cole Irvin, who joined Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells in an Opening Day rotation that looked like the weak link through the first half.
By the end of July, Orioles starters held a 4.48 ERA that was the 17th best in baseball. Their solution was two-pronged: Ride top prospect Grayson Rodriguez, who had begun to establish himself, and buy low on Jack Flaherty, who was struggling with the Cardinals.
Their rotation did stabilize but lacked the upper-echelon stuff (apart from Rodriguez at least) usually needed to thrive in October.
Rodriguez and Flaherty combined to allow six runs in 3 ⅔ playoff innings. In Tuesday’s elimination game, their last hope was the ordinary Kremer, who allowed six runs while recording five outs.
The Orioles never really had a chance because their decision-makers did not give them one, choosing to prioritize payroll and prospects over a playoff push.
The three opposing starters that knocked them out — Andrew Heaney, Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi — all could have been theirs either this offseason or at the trade deadline.
Instead, it was the Rangers — who, according to Spotrac, have the fourth-highest payroll in baseball (Orioles have third lowest) — who elected to add whatever was needed.
This offseason, what the Rangers believed they needed were Jacob deGrom, Eovaldi, Heaney and Martin Perez.
DeGrom got hurt and Perez flamed out, which prompted the Rangers to again act boldly and acquire Montgomery and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline.
Montgomery has mattered in the postseason, and Scherzer still looms as he recovers from a shoulder injury.
Both teams had powerful offenses, the Rangers’ primarily built externally, the Orioles’ internally.
But only one team tried its best, transactionally and financially, to complement the attack.
“For me, I think the first thing that comes to mind is: We’ll be back,” young Orioles lefty DL Hall told reporters after the Game 3 loss. “That’s all I can say. I know we’ll be back, and I think this was just kind of a snippet of what’s to come.”
The words are understandable, but his predictive powers could be askew.
The Mets thought they would be back, too. They acquired Daniel Vogelbach and Darin Ruf at an uninspiring trade deadline then flamed out in last season’s playoffs.
There are too many variables that determine baseball success for teams to waste a season in which so much is clicking.
The Mets, of course, did not make it back and held a fire sale this year.
The two best prospects moved at the deadline — Luisangel Acuña and Drew Gilbert — went into their system because the Rangers and Astros, respectively, acted the most aggressively to try to win this season.
Just as the Rangers essentially replaced deGrom with Scherzer, Houston lost Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia to season-ending injuries and then reacquired Justin Verlander, who shut out the Twins for six innings in the Game 1 win of the ALDS.
The Twins, meanwhile, only added Dylan Floro at the trade deadline — a reliever who has since been released.
Minnesota sure could have used an extra bat in Games 3 and 4 of the ALDS, in which they scored a combined three runs.
A flat Twins attack enabled the Astros to clinch a spot in the ALCS for a showdown with the Rangers, which comes with a certain amount of justice.
The two teams in the league that tried the hardest have advanced the furthest.
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